Thursday, March 09, 2006

Stocks and Stock Markets

In my last post i talked about Indian Law System which i do not understand at all. There are two more things which i do not understandl. The other one is Stock Markets. this post is influenced by the book i am reading on Stock markets and my own observation for the past few years. To begin with Stock Market just reminds me of a song by Bon Jovi "Hey God! -- What the hell is going on?" the only thing i understand is that stock markets go up and go down, the swings being judged by the indices. A quick questions pops in my mind what makes the indices go up or down...the answer is the Stock prices of the companies that makes up the index say BSE-30 index. Ok! And the stock prices are governed by the performance of the company Rite? Well the markets seem to think otherwise. For the past 3-4 years i have observed (most of the time) even though a company declares positive results for the quarter the market responds in the other direction almost all the time...the logic? i have no clue! Then u have those analysts.. These guys are real pro . i have heard frm lots of ppl "If u hear their words carefully, u will be able to predict where the market is heading the next day". So a question that comes in the mind of naive investor (say) like me is -- Then what drives the markets? thats a million rupees question (i do not like Dollar) and the person who can answer that, in my view has made a lot of money on the stock markets. There is one incident i remembered in which the markets went down by over 1% around 26 Jan 2002 (i do not remember the year correctly) and the reason given by the analysts on a major financial TV was General Padnabhan has called a press conference...............if my memory is correct the Army has been calling for the press conference earlier too on the eve of independence day.....so what was special in that? NOTHING ... i think they just ran out of ideas to take the markets down. Coming back to present times, markets have been touching new heights till yesterday....i did not get the point for this phenomenal rise coz as my frens tell that the "Mid-caps" (i have no idea what the hell they are) have not risen much compared to the rise in markets and the rosy picture that the RISE paints. Also this reminds me of the scams that have always followed with the phenomenal rise in the markets. I hope this time this isn't the case thanx to SEBI for tightening the regulations even further. Having said that, as i said in my earlier post that ppl think of loop-holes in the laws before they come into effect .. lets hope this isn't true this time for the benefit of small investors. PS the books I have read are --
  1. A Beginners Guide : Profitable Investment in Shares
  2. One Up on Wall Street - How to Use What You Already Know to Make Money in the Market (Currently Reading)

15 comments:

Y said...

Oooh Thats one of my fav topics.
Let me read. Will have fun commenting.

Y said...

Hey can tell you having doubts is very good. Stock markets are totally governed by human irrationality. I am just interested in this irrational aspect of stock markets. I donot know of the technicalities and they dont interest me. That book: One up on the wall street is good. Its by Peter Lynch na.

I havent read all, but I'll still propose that you read books by Warren Buffet, Benjamin Graham and my fav George Soros. Soros's work is very confusing. Very confusing indeed. But once u get the hang, it will make the max sense.

I think stock markets are best understood in seclusion. Without hearing analysts, CNBC, NDTV Profit, economic times etc. Just u and the stock market.

Abhinav said...

yep its by Peter Lynch and its a great book and the guy simply talks sense.
True .. ignore the analysts, TV channels however u need to know what these ppl will drive markets too the next day.
yep i will read other books too as the market is too high for a starter like me to invest.

greensatya said...

Sher has explained it but I will add something cause I have slightly different view.

Irrationality - try to be rational at the times of irrationality and you will gain.

News - Information is money in stock market so read as many newspapers or other sources of information. But don't hear those stock investing tips. Recently Indian authorities have penalised few of these advisors for doing exaclty opposite to which they were investing.

I tracked moneycontrol advise on Ashok Leyland and it fell flat on their face. So disregard advises where to invest but read news.

Have you ever participated in analyst call ? If not then please participate in one; don't ask questions but just listen in the call. Alternatively read the transcript which is released later. You will be amazed how these anlaysts examine every shred of the result. If one had properly read the analyst then they would not have lost money in Enron. There were couple of investor then who constantly raised red flags.

greensatya said...

Errata -

investing = advising (last line 3rd paragraph)

:p

greensatya said...

damn it, I am in hurry to go to work so another errata

investor = analyst (last line of comment)

sorry for creating the mess.

Abhinav said...

np satya....thanx for the info....there is one analyst on moneycontrol who comes on chat on Tuesday Ramesh Damani..ppl say he is too good have u ever attended his chat?

greensatya said...

no no I didn't mean those kind of anlayst. Please stay away from them, I told you about the recent scam in it.

I was talking of analyst meet which every major company holds after they declare the results.
In April most of them will declare the result and then have the conference.

Abhinav said...

ohh ok ..

PNA said...

hi Abhinav

somehow stocks and shares and the market gives me an unsettling feeling ....u know kinda my stomach churns ....and all that starts off when my friends who are big time stock market fans and investors start talking .....

well good u have suggested books that give insights ..,maybe it is the initial thrust which is lacking in me or u for that matter to take up the market seriously or otherwise ....

cya ...
Ash

PNA said...

irrationality .......
oaki ....
and warren buffet ...
lynch ,..
and cnbc and profit ....


i know i know ....
a friend was advised to see the 11 show on cnbc that discusses stocks ....questions from the janta out there....when she wanted to start investing .......

good information from all of u here
ty

Ash

Abhinav said...

ash i am glad the post is of use to u.
There is great info provided by Sher and Satya too.

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